In my opinion the World economy will suffer a lot in between December to April next year. The war with Russia will take a new turn at the year end. My Prediction Russia will stop supplying Gas to Europe in Next winter, which will create a chaos in Europe. Majority of the current government who will face election ahead will lose and new government will come. In Next election in USA and Canada Conservative will come, Biden and Trudeau will be out. In anywhere south Asia new election will give rise to new power/ party.
Commodity price is now at resting phase, and I can sense everything will go up again soon. Interest rate will be increased soon again everywhere globally which will trigger economic contractions. House price will fall. Europe will suffer most difficult time after World War 3. Oil price will go up again. I am expecting less growth in RMG sector on wards (8-12 months). Our export data is misleading. Due to inflation our valuation is more but profit will be less and less which is a risk. If Europe suffers our RMG will as well. Germany imports 14-15% from BD. I can bet German economy will shrink in upcoming months and year. Russian war is at starting face. I don't see any resolution in few years.
During the COVID period total of 36 trillion-dollar USD injected in world economy unless those are taken out inflation will not go away. only way to do that is to increase interest rate, which is on process. So, if you are in RMG sector then be cautious with Job and increase your tolerance. When economy will fix everything will have a stellar growth. I think I wrote enough about it in last 24 months. 80% of those predictions were accurate.
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Security and savings should be your priority in next 6-12 months. Our country is sitting in a confluence point. Suffering Economically like other countries in southeast Asia. Politically current government is stressed out. It’s a break or make moment. All commodity price is going up. Normal people are suffering. Rules are for rich and influential people not for "Am Janata". Lot of things going on under the surface.
What not to do? Pick a fight with anyone, don’t stay late outside, when people get desperate for livelihood then do crazy things. Get extra careful about your children, where they are going, who are their friends. You can expect more " Sintati, Dakati, kidnapping ". It’s a short-term phenomenon. Things will be like this for rest of 2022. If Govt can’t handle situation, then major chaos is possible like in 2006 or 2014 or worse like Srilanka. Don't think if new government comes, they will solve current issue. It’s not as simple as looks.
In western world, House price is falling. Rent is increasing, all commodity price is still high. Shortage of supply of many things. Hiring freeze in big companies. So don't fight with your management. Due to global recession in RMG order will be less. Focus on Developing skills and not wasting money. I know in our sector people has a lot of money, but things don’t goes same always.
Is it possible that you go to ATM booth or Bank and they don't allow you to withdraw the amount you want. Your account is restricted. In my lifetime I saw in Greece, Iceland, china, Srilanka and other countries. If every customer asks for money at the same time bank will not have enough money to give its customer. The money it loans to bad business or investment will not come back.
Many things have changed after COVID. Now everything is a possibility if government can’t handle things well things can be ugly in no time. Srilanka is a great example. Recent US dollar hike sounds an alarm bell. If people start buying USD to save their asset, then USD against taka will be more stranger. More it goes high more doubts in mind and more buying of USD. Until it hits climax (150-200). Dollar will be weaker in short term but in long term it will go high until climax is hit.
If dollar goes high in black market then people will not send through bank. They will take profit with Hundi. Which means less dollar for government and more import cost ahead. It’s like a ripple effect with high momentum. If I were in BD then just for safety I would get some USD ( legal way ) or some cash or some food ( 3 month reserve ). You never know how bad things can go when it gets momentum. I hope it will not happen.
Only thing I am afraid of negative trend gets momentum. If things get bad I can guarantee 100% small banks ( private ) will not allow you to withdraw money from bank. Mark my word. Withdrawal will be limited ( 5k in a day or less ).
Post COVID time is full of climax. I wrote many things in 2020 at COVID times, those are happening now. RMG sector will be slower. Less profit. But in long term it will be good. Bad times always followed by good times. Wait for good time. Preserve your job and money. Don’t fight against management. until things are good. Globally sign on ease in inflation. At least recent data showed. We are behind six month from global change. Oil price coming down. Unless there is a war with Russia things should improve.
Writing courtesy:
Engr. Monowar Hossain Palash